Nebraska could set a state record for voter turnout in a presidential election year 

With fiercely tight races for the U.S. Senate and the House and ballot issues dealing with abortion, school vouchers, paid sick leave and medical marijuana, Nebraska could set a state record for voter turnout in a presidential election year next month.

“There are several hot ballot issues this cycle, plus some races that will come down to the wire. With all that action, we could be headed for new turnout records,” said Paul Landow, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.

Secretary of State Bob Evnen has yet to release his prediction for voter turnout.

The record turnout in a presidential election in Nebraska came in 2020, when 74% of eligible voters cast ballots. That beat the record of nearly 72% set in 2016, according to records kept by the Nebraska Secretary of State’s office.

While Nebraska hasn’t gone to a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, this year’s race between former President Doland Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has stirred up emotions.

In the U.S. Senate race, independent labor union leader Dan Osborn is surprising election experts with a strong push to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer. Recent polling has shown the race in a dead heat. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, it is the closest Senate race in the country.

In the Omaha area’s 2nd Congressional District race, Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas is again trying to unseat Republican Rep. Don Bacon. Vargas came within less than 3 percentage points of beating Bacon in 2022. The website “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics recently rated the Vargas-Bacon race “leans Democrat.”

The 2nd Congressional District is also in play for Harris’ bid to win the 270 electoral votes needed to defeat Trump and claim the presidency. Nebraska and Maine are the only states that split their electoral votes. In Nebraska, two of the five electoral votes for president are awarded based on the statewide vote; the other three are assigned based on the winner of the election in each of the state’s congressional districts.

Among a hefty list of ballot measures, voters are choosing between competing abortion questions. The Protect Our Rights ballot initiative, Measure 439, was put forth by a coalition of five abortion rights organizations and would amend the state constitution to “provide all persons the fundamental right to abortion without interference from the state or its political subdivisions until fetal viability,” generally considered to be around 24 weeks’ gestation. 

The other abortion measure, called Protect Women and Children or Measure 434, would cement Nebraska’s current 12-week abortion ban in the state constitution.

The other measures that will be on the ballot are Measure 435, which would partially repeal Nebraska’s law allowing tax dollars to pay for private school tuition vouchers; Measure 436, which would require businesses to provide full-time workers paid sick days; Measure 437, which would allow the use of medical cannabis; and Measure 438, which would regulate the distribution and sale of medical cannabis.

Landow said that this could all add up to a record turnout.

“Because people are coming out to vote on those hot-button issues, and because there are several of them, plus hot races, more people will come out and vote,” Landow said.