Economists say Trump’s plans will increase inflation and national debt
A Wall Street Journal poll of economists found two-thirds believe former President Donald Trump’s policy proposals would make inflation higher than Vice President Kamala Harris’ would.

More than two-thirds of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal believe that former President Donald Trump’s policy proposals would result in higher inflation than those being offered by Vice President Kamala Harris. A similar number also believe his policies would add more to the national debt.
Between Oct. 4 and 8, the outlet polled 50 economists about the economic policy proposals being offered by the two presidential candidates. Asked under which proposed policies inflation would likely be higher, 68% said Trump, 12% said Harris, and 28% said there would be no material difference.
After spiking during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, inflation has returned to near pre-pandemic levels. Data reported on Oct. 10 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that consumer price growth has dropped to 0.2% in each of the last three months and to 2.4% over the previous 12 months, the lowest level since February 2021. The drops followed a series of laws passed by Democratic majorities in Congress and implemented by President Joe Biden and Vice President Harris aimed at lowering costs and boosting supply chains.
Trump has proposed repealing some of those policies and adding new tariffs, taxes on all imported goods coming into the United States. The Center for American Progress Action Fund, a progressive nonprofit, estimated his plans would cost a typical American family $3,900 more each year.
Harris has outlined steps to further lower costs, including tax credits for parents and first-time homeowners, caps on out-of-pocket prescription drug costs, and protections against food price gouging.
The Wall Street Journal survey also found that 65% of the economists believe Trump’s plans would do more to increase the annual federal budget gap. Though Trump promised in his 2016 campaign that he would balance the budget and eliminate the national debt “fairly quickly,” the debt actually increased by nearly $8 trillion during his term in office.
The economists are not alone in their assessments that Trump’s plans would make things worse for the economy.
A September analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics think tank found Trump’s proposals could cause inflation to reach between 6% and 9.3% by 2028 and result in lower employment and national income than without them.
Goldman Sachs economists analyzed both Trump’s and Harris’ plans in September and determined that Harris’ would likely increase economic growth in 2025-2026, while Trump’s would reduce GDP, undermine job growth, and boost core inflation.
In August, a simulation by the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania found Harris’ proposals would add much less to the national debt than Trump’s and would benefit lower- and middle-income working families more. Trump’s plans would benefit the wealthiest Americans.